According to the latest data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) in October 2024, what started as a routine National Identity Number (NIN) verification exercise has resulted in the most significant subscriber purge in Nigerian telecom history. The numbers are staggering:
Total industry subscriber loss: 65,048,804 users
Reduction from: 219,683,240 (February 2024)
Current active users: 154,634,436
Percentage decline: 29.6% of total subscriber base
In what industry experts are calling the most significant shake-up in Nigerian telecommunications history, leading operators have collectively lost over 65 million subscribers following a stringent National Identity Number (NIN) verification exercise, with indigenous operator Globacom bearing the brunt of the purge.
According to data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) this week, Globacom’s subscriber base plummeted from 62.1 million to a mere 19.1 million users, representing an unprecedented 69.2% reduction. This dramatic decline has fundamentally altered Nigeria’s telecom landscape, reshaping market dynamics and raising serious questions about previous subscriber reporting practices.
“The removal of Subscriber Identification Modules (SIMs) that are not linked to verifiable National Identification Numbers (NINs) and the rectification of a major discrepancy by a Mobile Network Operator explain the significant drop in Nigeria’s telecoms subscriber base,” the NCC stated in its latest report.
The impact varies significantly among operators:
MTN Nigeria, the market leader, lost 3.7 million subscribers (3.5% decline)
Airtel shed 9.6 million users (14.7% reduction)
9mobile lost 8 million subscribers (73% decrease)
The purge has dramatically redrawn market share distributions. MTN Nigeria now commands an even more dominant 50% market share, followed by Airtel with 34%. Globacom’s position has weakened considerably to 14%, while 9mobile has been reduced to a marginal 2% market share.
The financial ramifications of this cleanup are expected to be substantial. Airtel Africa, in its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2024, warned investors of potential monthly revenue losses of up to $4 million due to the verification exercise.
MTN Nigeria, while acknowledging the disconnection of 4.2 million lines, maintained that the impact on revenue would be minimal, characterizing the affected users as “low-value subscribers.”
Dr. Aminu Maida, Executive Vice Chairman of the NCC, speaking at the 2024 annual corporate governance conference in Lagos, emphasized the security benefits of the exercise: “Today, there is no phone number that we cannot associate with a verified NIN. If this phone number is involved in fraud or any crime, I can now authoritatively say, based on the NIN linked to it, this is the person who is using that phone number.”
Telecom expert Mr. Adewale Adeoye views the development positively: “This is a good development for Nigeria and the telecom industry. It means that every Nigerian on the telecom network is now properly identified, which will promote decent use of telecommunication services.”
However, he expressed concerns about the practical application of this data: “I hope that the Nigerian security forces will make use of this to address the insecurity in the country or else the whole exercise will be a waste of time and resources.”
The NIN-SIM linkage policy, initiated in December 2020, has gone through multiple phases and deadline extensions. This latest verification exercise, concluding on September 14, 2024, represents the most stringent implementation yet. The timeline of events reveals a pattern of regulatory challenges:
2020:
December: Initial NIN-SIM linkage directive issued
First deadline set for two weeks (widely criticized as unrealistic)
2021-2023:
Multiple deadline extensions
Gradual implementation of restrictions
Continuing challenges with verification processes
2024:
February: Initial warning of impending strict enforcement
July: First wave of line restrictions
July 28-29: Mass service disruptions leading to public unrest
September 14: Final verification deadline
October: Release of post-purge subscriber data
Industry analysts point to several critical concerns:
The accuracy of previous subscriber numbers and market valuations
The effectiveness of regulatory oversight
The impact on competition and service quality
Future verification processes and compliance mechanisms
The NCC has indicated that this cleanup represents a new chapter in Nigerian telecommunications, with enhanced security features and more accurate subscriber data. However, questions remain about how operators will rebuild their customer bases while maintaining strict verification standards.
For millions of affected Nigerians, the immediate challenge lies in re-verifying their identities and reactivating their lines. The NCC has assured that proper verification channels are now in place to facilitate this process.
The commission has announced plans for stricter oversight mechanisms and regular audits to prevent future accumulation of unverified subscribers. “This exercise marks a turning point in our regulatory approach,” an NCC spokesperson stated.
The cleanup, while necessary, exposes the need for stronger regulatory oversight of telecom operators, more frequent audit of subscriber databases, better integration between national identity management systems and telecom networks and clear penalties for operators who fail to maintain accurate subscriber records.
The true test will be whether this purge leads to lasting improvements in Nigeria’s digital identity management or becomes merely another temporary cleanup exercise in an ongoing cycle of poor verification practices.
This structural transformation of Nigeria’s telecom sector may ultimately prove beneficial, but it comes at a significant cost to operators and raises serious questions about the industry’s historical reporting practices and regulatory oversight.
